Not a lot of things to look forward to in sports rn and we will be having quite a bit of a ufc drought(at least we can watch fedor fight rampage this weekend... yay...), but it always makes you anticipate the card more and be thankful for the greatest sport and organization in the world.
At first glance of UFC 246, all the lines look pretty sharp for the most part and I don’t see any valuable locks, but I do see the strong favorites to seal the deal that night.
Andre Fili at +125ish is def worth a play in my book although the sharp side is def on Sodiq Youseff. Fili is tough, great striking and has a good chance of flip flopping the lines after the first or second round and show that the lines were messed up. However, this is a prelim three round fight and we all know how those can go... too close to put my money on anyone in this fight, perhapppps inside the decision might be the best bet to make as both these guys are explosive strikers.
I also want to point out to everyone that the biggest trap bet of this card will be Holm vs. Pennington. Holm is much more refined in her striking but at this point in their careers Pennington is the better FIGHTER. I see a couple possibilities happening this fight, Holm 30-27ing or 29-28ing Pennington in a cardio kickboxing snoozefest or Pennington abuses Holms chink in the armor which is takedown defense. I could also see Pennington just out brawling Holm and just throwing technique out the window and winning off grit. This one is a stay away 100%, its like putting your money near a volcano. wouldn’t lay money on goes to decision either because if I laid money on it, Raquel would lean into a roundhouse kick. PASS on this fight completely and thank me later unless maybe you get Raquel at some good odds
Lol, maycee barber being a -900 favorite... fellas with the last $100 to Hail Mary in their bank account, prolly would Lay it on Roxanne because those odds are wayyy offfff. Realistically the odds should be -500 at most but maycee has used her voice to convince the public that she is better then she really is. I would probably bet on maycee to win a somewhat close decision here, but it’s woman’s mma, it’s 3 rounds, s’too random for my liking, dog or pass for me on this one and will have to discipline myself to not bet on this fight because Roxanne could pull of the upset here.
Now this is probably the most “lock” pick of the card with a decent price. Grant Dawson at -190ish. I like betting on reliability and I can rely on grant to implement his game plan against someone who isn’t known for said game plan. Chas smelly is a nobody and Grant Dawson should be able to dominate him this fight via wrestling. Will prolly sprinkle some on grant via decision and splurge on the moneyline.
And another free lock is Nasrat at -300. Now I’d be curious to see how this kid does against top 10 opponents, but he can crush cans like a recycling center. Drew dober is a nobody and this will be his swan song before he gets cut and fights in casinos. Can see this line going nowhere but up as it started at almost -150 and has crept up steadily to an expensive -300.
Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira. Who woulda thought Anthony wheaties Pettis would be such an underdog against a relatively unknown up and comer. This matchup is very intriguing because both guys honestly have a decent chance to win. I wouldn’t be too wary to go the bank to bet that Pettis is washed. This dude still holds a lot of experience and still has the ability to finish fights. Yes, I have seen Pettis fight and have backed him and picked against him. He is one of those guys like Kevin lee where you don’t know if you’re going to get an easy win or a miserable to watch experience. Personally, I get that the sharp side is all over Ferreira but I would go with Pettis at those dog odds. Ferreira is still relatively green and Pettis has nothing to lose here. He had a lot on the line on the Diaz fight and Diaz was stylistically just a bad match up for Pettis. I know a lot of these picks have been dog or pass but the match ups are intriguing which = tough to guess on who is gonna win.
And now for the main event, I already wrote an essay on this fight and firmly believe that Conor will win this fight. Def not taking out any mortgages with a lot of unknowns here. Is conor just doing this for relevancy, will Cerrone finally perform when the spotlight is ALL over him, will Dillon danis be there??? Too many unknowns, but with both fighters being a bit of wildcards outside the octagon with a good family life, I won’t give any guy the edge in the “outside the octagon” meter. However, in the durability meter Cerrone has put on so many miles compared to conor it’s ridiculous.I firmly believe that Cerrone might be the most bobbleheaded athlete of this generation because he has had this cycle of beating up on lower level competition and getting absolutely murked by anyone who is a bad matchup or just better then him and has been repeating this cycle for the past 5+ years now. Most fighters should realistically quit after their 3rd time of getting viciously knocked out, but Cerrone is deciding to march head on into scary town head on. Mcgregor is stylistically a bad match up being a southpaw and having 99 performance/composure/ while Cerrone might have some psychological issue where he just cracks under pressure horribly. The most likely scenario i see is Conor TKOing Cerrone in the 2nd and we will be a little cockteased because Cerrone will look like he just got shot with one punch and it will be all smiles in the octagon after the fight because of a fat payday for a couple minutes in the octagon. Def drop a sizable bet on conor, your welcome.

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